Van Tran for Congress

All Signs Point to Another Top-Notch Election Cycle in 2010

Sept. 8, 2009
By Stuart Rothenberg
Roll Call Contributing Writer

I began this year doubtful that we’d see much excitement in the 2010 elections. I’m quickly changing my tune.

After two big elections, Democrats didn’t have many opportunities left in the House. GOP Senate retirements seemed to open the door to more Democratic gains, but with the Democrats controlling 59 (then 60) seats, additional party gains, quite frankly, wouldn’t be regarded as significant.

But growing public concern about spending, taxes and the size of government has started to shift the national landscape away from the Democrats to a more neutral position, and quite possibly toward the GOP. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has even found that Republicans have regained their historic advantage as the party better suited to deal with spending and taxes.

The change in the political landscape has encouraged Republican candidates and prospects…

…Republican House prospects looked good technically — that is, many Republican districts are now held by Democrats who should theoretically have re-election problems — but the GOP’s damaged brand and minority status didn’t seem like a great argument for recruiting.

And the special election in New York’s 20th district earlier this year suggested the political environment hadn’t changed much from 2008.
But the National Republican Congressional Committee has already recruited some intriguing challengers, and a noticeable shift in the national mood will almost certainly put more Democratic seats into play over the next six to 12 months.

Repeat GOP candidates such as Steve Stivers (Ohio), Andy Harris (Md.) and former Rep. Steve Chabot (Ohio) have to be regarded as strong challengers given their narrow defeats last time. Former Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), who is running to regain a seat he gave up to run for the Senate, is another strong contender.

Republicans are also high on California Assemblyman Van Tran, Manchester, N.H., Mayor Frank Guinta, Colorado state Rep. Cory Gardner, Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou and Montgomery, Ala., City Councilmember Martha Roby, who give the GOP an unusual mix of challengers with considerable appeal. And former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan is about to enter the open-seat race in Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak’s Pennsylvania district, giving the GOP a chance to win the seat.

House retirements have been relatively few, and as the last election in this redistricting cycle, total House retirements may be down. But we still should see some additional retirements over the next few months, possibly adding to the list of competitive contests.
Finally, there are plenty of races for governor.

Again, I thought that many of the gubernatorial outcomes were easily predicted, but the combination of a weak economy and some interesting candidates have shaken up a number of races. It’s early, but contests (in some cases both primaries and general elections) in a number of large states, including Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and even California, look potentially fascinating.

The tide clearly has turned nationally, with the president’s popularity down and Democrats fighting against a growing mood of dissatisfaction. That’s a huge problem for Democrats in the two states that will have gubernatorial elections this year.

But while Republican strategists are showing greater optimism about the midterms, they also say that they wish those elections were taking place this November, not more than a year from now. And that’s another reason why the next 14 months should be so exciting.

Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

Poll Points To Dangers Ahead For Congressional Democrats

Poll Points To Dangers Ahead For Congressional Democrats
The Wall Street Journal
Jonathan Weisman
September 2, 2009, 10:31 AM ET

If congressional Democrats needed more warning signs about a potential drubbing in next year’s midterm elections, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press just provided them.

Opinions of Congress have taken a 13-point nosedive since April and are now at one of the lowest points in more than two decades, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan outfit. Currently, 37% feel f avorably toward the men and women on Capitol Hill; 52% feel unfavorably.

And while Democrats still maintain a narrow advantage over Republicans, it is now well within the margin of error. Of those polled, 45% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district or lean that way, compared with 44% who lean to the GOP. At this point four years ago, Democrats led the so-called generic ballot 52% to 40%.

Independents, which recently backed Democrats by a wide margin, now support Republicans in their district, 43% to 38%. And though Democrats still hold advantages on most issues, two issues that Democrats recently dominated – the budget deficit and managing the federal government – are now neck and neck. By a 46% to 39% margin, Americans say they generally oppose the health care proposals under consideration in Congress.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/09/02/poll-points-to-signals-dangers-ahead-for-congressional-democrats/tab/print/

Van Tran Flexes Muscle In GOP Congressional Primary

For the full OC Register article:

http://totalbuzz.freedomblogging.com/2009/08/24/van-tran-flexes-muscle-in-gop-congressional-primary/20419/#comment-69343

Two GOP Reps. hit the road in search of candidates

By PATRICK O’CONNOR | 8/5/09 4:16 AM EDT

According to Politico, during summer 2009, GOP leaders like Rep. Kevin McCarthy and Lynn Westmoreland will travel parts of the country to recruit candidates to run against incumbent Democrats for the next election cycle in 2010. “McCarthy likes to talk about Van Tran, a Vietnamese-born Orange County Republican he has recruited to run against Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Tran raised more than $250,000 in his first three months campaigning, ensuring Sanchez will have a fight on her hands for the first time in years.”*
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/25812.html#ixzz0P8QATNR4

FEC Reports Force New Races To The Fore

The Hill
By Aaron Blake 07/18/09

…It’s a four-times-yearly ritual in House campaigns: Wait for the quarterly fundraising reports to roll in, and reevaluate the races accordingly. It’s still very early, but the second-quarter reports filed Wednesday will affect that next 16 months in a big way. And many races have been recast because of the numbers posted this week.

The Hill looks at the top 10 races that took on a new identity thanks to the fundraising reports:
CA-45 and 47 – Two-for-one in the competitive column

Republicans have tried hard to put Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s (D-Calif.) seat on the map, and Democrats have attempted the same with Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s (R-Calif.) nearby district. Both have done so now, after Assemblyman Van Tran (R) outraised Sanchez (sparking renewed rumors of a Sanchez statewide run) and Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet outraised Bono Mack. It’s safe to put these seats in the realm of possibility now.

FOR THE COMPLETE STORY VISIT:
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/fec-reports-force-new-races-to-the-fore-2009-07-18.html

CD47 Watch: Van Tran Outraises Loretta Sanchez in 2nd Quarter

RedCounty.com
By Matthew Cunningham | 07/15/09

…Loretta Sanchez, worked hard amidst the ritz and flash to shake the campaign money tree. The result?: $242,295.74 for April-May-June, 2009…

But…what’s more impressive is Assemblyman Van Tran actually out-raised the incumbent during the same period, posting $253,821 during the same three-month period — and in Van Tran’s case, his money was raised in just six weeks…

…If I were Sanchez, I’d be worried that after 10 years of crushing underfunded or incompetent Republican opponents, I now faced an GOP state legislator with a successful record of political organizing and winning elections who was able to raise more money in a shorter amount of time. Shades of the fates of Bob Dornan and Jerry Patterson.

Loretta’s report summary shows a $700 refund to a political action committee, but it’s omitted from her Schedule B itemized disbursements. Otherwise, Loretta still refuses to join several fellow House Democrats in returning several thousand in donations from a partner in the now defunct-and-under-investigation PMA Group – money donated under false pretenses.

FOR THE COMPLETE STORY VISIT:
http://www.redcounty.com/cd47-watch-van-tran-outraises-loretta-sanchez-2nd-quarter

Tran Adds Thousands To War Chest

The Political Landscape: Tran Adds Thousands To War Chest
The Daily Pilot Newspaper
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
By Alan Blank

Assemblyman Van Tran’s campaign said this week that he raised $250,000 this quarter for his upcoming race for Congress against incumbent Rep. Loretta Sanchez in 2010…

“By out-raising nearly all congressional challengers, most incumbent members of Congress and open-seat contenders, the Tran campaign has become an immediate threat to the incumbent, all within the first six weeks,” according to a statement released by the Tran campaign.

“We believe that this district is extremely competitive,” said Tran consultant Jeff Roe…

http://www.dailypilot.com/articles/2009/07/16/politics/dpt-landscape071609.1.prt

“Air Tran” (House Race Hotline, 7/13)

Assemb. Tran (R) raises an $250K in the 2ndQ, an impressive amount in what’s going to be a tough race against Rep. Sanchez (D-CA 47). (House Race Hotline, 7/13)

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/house_race_hotline.php

“Watch The Tran Car, Please!” (“Scorecard,” Politico, 7/13)

Assemb. Van Tran (R) raised $250K in the 2ndQ for his race against Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) (Kraushaar, “Scorecard,” Politico, 7/13).

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/po_20090713_2264.php

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0709/Weekend_roundup_Corzine_the_underdog.html#comments

Fundraising Confirms Campaign as One of the Top Congressional Races in America

ORANGE COUNTY, CA- The Van Tran for U.S. Congress committee shattered all previous fundraising numbers by raising over $250,000 in only six weeks of fundraising. This torrid pace launches the campaign into the top tier of all fundraising quarters for candidates for Congress in the entire Nation. By out-raising nearly all Congressional challengers, most incumbent members of Congress and open seat contenders, the Tran campaign has become an immediate threat to the incumbent, all within the first six weeks.

“Voters are unhappy about the direction of our Country,” said Jeff Roe, campaign consultant. “These numbers reflect the fact that the voters in Orange County are ready for a strong leader with a real vision, not the same wasteful spending of the current incumbent,” Roe continued.

Tran’s finance numbers are built upon individual donors not the liberal line-up of special interest groups that the incumbent’s report showcases.

“We are very excited and energized about the strong and early support,” Tran said, “but we understand that this is the beginning; we have a long campaign and a lot of work to do to transform the future of this country,” Tran concluded.

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