All Signs Point to Another Top-Notch Election Cycle in 2010
Sep/091
Sept. 8, 2009
By Stuart Rothenberg
Roll Call Contributing Writer
I began this year doubtful that we’d see much excitement in the 2010 elections. I’m quickly changing my tune.
After two big elections, Democrats didn’t have many opportunities left in the House. GOP Senate retirements seemed to open the door to more Democratic gains, but with the Democrats controlling 59 (then 60) seats, additional party gains, quite frankly, wouldn’t be regarded as significant.
But growing public concern about spending, taxes and the size of government has started to shift the national landscape away from the Democrats to a more neutral position, and quite possibly toward the GOP. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has even found that Republicans have regained their historic advantage as the party better suited to deal with spending and taxes.
The change in the political landscape has encouraged Republican candidates and prospects…
…Republican House prospects looked good technically — that is, many Republican districts are now held by Democrats who should theoretically have re-election problems — but the GOP’s damaged brand and minority status didn’t seem like a great argument for recruiting.
And the special election in New York’s 20th district earlier this year suggested the political environment hadn’t changed much from 2008.
But the National Republican Congressional Committee has already recruited some intriguing challengers, and a noticeable shift in the national mood will almost certainly put more Democratic seats into play over the next six to 12 months.
Repeat GOP candidates such as Steve Stivers (Ohio), Andy Harris (Md.) and former Rep. Steve Chabot (Ohio) have to be regarded as strong challengers given their narrow defeats last time. Former Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.), who is running to regain a seat he gave up to run for the Senate, is another strong contender.
Republicans are also high on California Assemblyman Van Tran, Manchester, N.H., Mayor Frank Guinta, Colorado state Rep. Cory Gardner, Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou and Montgomery, Ala., City Councilmember Martha Roby, who give the GOP an unusual mix of challengers with considerable appeal. And former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan is about to enter the open-seat race in Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak’s Pennsylvania district, giving the GOP a chance to win the seat.
House retirements have been relatively few, and as the last election in this redistricting cycle, total House retirements may be down. But we still should see some additional retirements over the next few months, possibly adding to the list of competitive contests.
Finally, there are plenty of races for governor.
Again, I thought that many of the gubernatorial outcomes were easily predicted, but the combination of a weak economy and some interesting candidates have shaken up a number of races. It’s early, but contests (in some cases both primaries and general elections) in a number of large states, including Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and even California, look potentially fascinating.
The tide clearly has turned nationally, with the president’s popularity down and Democrats fighting against a growing mood of dissatisfaction. That’s a huge problem for Democrats in the two states that will have gubernatorial elections this year.
But while Republican strategists are showing greater optimism about the midterms, they also say that they wish those elections were taking place this November, not more than a year from now. And that’s another reason why the next 14 months should be so exciting.
Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.
Poll Points To Dangers Ahead For Congressional Democrats
Sep/090
Poll Points To Dangers Ahead For Congressional Democrats
The Wall Street Journal
Jonathan Weisman
September 2, 2009, 10:31 AM ET
If congressional Democrats needed more warning signs about a potential drubbing in next year’s midterm elections, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press just provided them.
Opinions of Congress have taken a 13-point nosedive since April and are now at one of the lowest points in more than two decades, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan outfit. Currently, 37% feel f avorably toward the men and women on Capitol Hill; 52% feel unfavorably.
And while Democrats still maintain a narrow advantage over Republicans, it is now well within the margin of error. Of those polled, 45% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district or lean that way, compared with 44% who lean to the GOP. At this point four years ago, Democrats led the so-called generic ballot 52% to 40%.
Independents, which recently backed Democrats by a wide margin, now support Republicans in their district, 43% to 38%. And though Democrats still hold advantages on most issues, two issues that Democrats recently dominated – the budget deficit and managing the federal government – are now neck and neck. By a 46% to 39% margin, Americans say they generally oppose the health care proposals under consideration in Congress.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/09/02/poll-points-to-signals-dangers-ahead-for-congressional-democrats/tab/print/